Download This PaperQuarter-Casting Euro Area Wage Growth
50 Pages Posted: 7 May 2024
Date Written: May 7, 2024
Abstract
This paper presents a methodology for 'quarter-casting' wage growth, leveraging real-time data from the Indeed Wage Tracker (IWT) to address the critical need for timely wage growth information. Our approach, focusing on the euro area, overcomes the limitations of delayed wage data by analysing high-frequency online job postings, offering early insights into wage trends. The study demonstrates that our optimised weighting approach to mapping IWT at the occupational category level to average wage growth at the aggregate level achieves superior in-sample accuracy across various euro area countries. This research not only bridges a significant gap in economic forecasting but also sets a precedent for employing online job market data for early wage growth analysis, enhancing real-time economic decision-making.
Keywords: Wage growth, inflation, forecasting
JEL Classification: E24, P24, E37
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
